Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents returns along the East Coast and numerous Florida Panhandle beaches today. A high risk for rip currents can be expected along the Southeast Coast thanks to stronger onshore flow while a low risk persists along the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Wave heights will remain near 2-3’ along the East Coast with 2-4’ waves along Atlantic-facing Key beaches. All other beaches can expect wave heights near 1-2’ today.

Red Tide hasbeen observed at background levels in one sample collected from Northwest Florida (Escambia County) on 4/18.

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk of coastal flooding today.

Fire Weather: Areas of patchy to locally dense fog have developed across portions of North and Central Florida this morning and will gradually dissipate after sunrise through the mid-morning hours. Foggy conditions may further reduce visibility where there are any ongoing wildfires. Dry air remains settled within areas along the I-75 corridor and interior Central Florida which will allow for relative humidity values to fall near critical thresholds this afternoon (35-40%), creating sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions. Light winds can be expected throughout much of the day before the sea breeze and gulf breeze move inland and collide with one another creating wind gusts of 15-25 mph at times along the Eastern and Southern Peninsula and Keys. With the collision of the sea breeze boundaries and an approaching upper-level disturbance, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm activity that develops will be capable of producing lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours. Lightning and gusty winds from thunderstorms, especially over emerging drought areas across the Peninsula, may result in the ignition or further spreading of wildfires. Another round of patchy to locally dense fog can be expected overnight and early Saturday morning throughout much of North and Central Florida. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 44 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 2595 acres.

Drought: High pressure has continued to yield relatively dry conditions and near to above normal temperatures statewide over the last week, leading to high evaporative demand and locally decreasing streamflow. Several recent brush fires have been noted and there has been an increased concern for more as short-term dryness and drought continue. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded along further northward and southward across Central and Southern portions of the Peninsula on this week’s drought monitor update and now stretch from the from the I-4 and south to the I-75 and from the West to the East Coast. Moderate Drought conditions have been introduced to eastern portions of the region from Brevard County to Palm Beach County and surrounding Lake Okeechobee as rainfall deficits continue to increase. 60-day rainfall deficits have reached 4-6” below normal along eastern portions of Central and South Florida, east and northeast of Lake Okeechobee, with isolated pockets of 6-8” below normal. North and northwest of Lake Okeechobee to the West Coast, 60-day rainfall deficits have reached 2-4” below normal. Above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall expected across the region over the next week will likely exacerbate drought conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 328 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There is one Florida county (St. Lucie) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Shower and thunderstorm activity developing along the sea breeze boundaries this afternoon and evening and moving into the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley from the north may bring locally heavy downpours at times. Rainfall totals are forecast to remain below 1”, but locally higher totals could reach 1-3” within stronger shower and thunderstorm activity. Localized ponding of water cannot be ruled out with heavier downpours this afternoon and evening across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.

Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect along the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates as minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue into next week. While rivers that see locally higher rainfall totals across the basins today could see local rises in water levels, riverine flooding is not anticipated. There are no additions riverine flood concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center. 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.16 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.59 feet above normal for this time of year.